Why Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro chose power over legitimacy

Until last night, there was a theory about Nicolás Maduro that many diplomats and Venezuelan analysts bought into: that the one thing he really wanted, apart from power, respect, security and creature comforts, was legitimacy via the ballot box.
That, they surmised, was why there was always a glimmer of hope that “Nico” could be persuaded to take part in a fair-ish competitive election. And if that went ahead, the Venezuela problem would begin to be solved.
It was a deal all sides wanted. The Ukraine war, and its effect on global energy supplies, had convinced the Biden administration that cutting itself off from a large supply of oil on its doorstep for the sake of some Trump-era sanctions made no sense. It was showing readiness to lift them all — and give up berating Maduro in the process.
It also sought a stable Venezuela, to end a troubling flow of migrants into the US. Most European countries and the UK were also getting tired of only half-recognising the Maduro government on the basis of a long-forgotten 2018 election and a man called Juan Guaidó (remember him?), and were ready to bury their differences.
All Maduro needed to do was take part in an election and everyone could move on. He could perhaps cheat a bit too — those diplomats would justify turning a blind eye to a blatantly skewed electoral playing field by saying things like “look, this isn’t Finland”.
But then came along María Corina Machado, with her resonating, emotional message of reuniting divided families and a brilliantly organised campaign using a proxy candidate. And an angry, hopeful Venezuelan population seeking revenge at the ballot box.
Maduro had a choice: lose power, or lose the legitimacy that western powers thought he craved so much. For him, it was an easy choice.